Fri, Jan 7, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Rangers 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 111 | 110 | 00 | 1 | 331 |
| DAL | 110 | 18 | 011 | 01 | 0 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:55DALBrian SutherbyAssists: Brandon Segal, Krys Barch · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 2:49NYRRuslan FedotenkoSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:20DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Jeff Woywitka · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–2
- P3 8:04NYRArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Marc Staal, Henrik Lundqvist · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 2. NYR Derek Stepan stopped
- 3. DAL Brad Richards stopped
- 4. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 5. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:57DALTrevor Daley: Interference2 min
- P1 7:25DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:25NYRDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:34NYRDerek Stepan: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:00NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:26NYRSteve Eminger: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:34DALSteve Ott: Elbowing2 min
- P3 1:19NYRBrandon Prust: Interference2 min
- P3 6:32DALBrandon Segal: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:29DALJames Neal: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Avery – Gaborik – Anisimov6:18
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Frolov – Dubinsky – Stepan2:08
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Stepan – Zuccarello2:01
xG 0.01–0.02 (41%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Stepan – Zuccarello6:13
xG 0.09–0.17 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Gilroy10:54
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Eminger – Girardi3:43
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Eminger – Sauer9:47
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Benn9:42
xG 0.55–0.30 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Barch – Sutherby – Segal2:58
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal14:46
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Ott – Burish – Wandell6:48
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann14:56
xG 1.24–0.42 (75%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Daley18:38
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
- Fistric – Larsen8:38
xG 0.21–0.36 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).