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Fri, Jan 7, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary

Detroit Red Wings 5, Calgary Flames 4 (SO)

Away

Detroit Red Wings

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Calgary Flames

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 85% of the time.

CGY winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DET192918011527
CGY210212011060439

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:43CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Matt Stajan, Anton Babchuk · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:58DETDarren HelmAssists: Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:50CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Curtis Glencross, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG1–2
  4. P2 0:41DETBrian RafalskiAssists: Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P2 1:09CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Anton Babchuk, Niklas Hagman · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
  6. P2 11:33CGYAnton BabchukPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Jarome Iginla · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
  7. P2 19:42DETPatrick EavesPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Todd Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.21 xG3–4
  8. P3 8:16DETBrian RafalskiAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. DET Jiri Hudler stopped
  2. 2. CGY Alex Tanguay stopped
  3. 3. DET Todd Bertuzzi scored
  4. 4. CGY Niklas Hagman stopped
  5. 5. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
  6. 6. CGY Rene Bourque stopped
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 13:16CGYDavid Moss: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 16:17DETJan Mursak: Interference2 min
  3. P2 9:43DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 12:12DETPatrick Eaves: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 16:48CGYAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 18:09CGYJay Bouwmeester: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  7. P3 3:11CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 6:12DETBrad Stuart: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 10:07CGYTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 11:42CGYBrendan Morrison: Hooking2 min
  11. OT 3:30DETTodd Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
47% to win53% to win
← DET attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Morrison
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETCGY
27Shots on goal39
1.9Expected goals4.4
53Shot attempts66
34Faceoffs won38
6Power plays5
10Penalty minutes12
11Hits20
8Blocked shots16
8Giveaways14
7Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Detroit Red Wings

Forward lines

  1. Miller – Abdelkader – Mursak3:58

    xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  2. Bertuzzi – Hudler – Helm2:49

    xG 0.01–0.04 (24%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  3. Draper – Helm – Tatar3:49

    xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  4. Bertuzzi – Holmstrom – Zetterberg6:00

    xG 0.09–0.28 (25%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Lidstrom – Rafalski5:54

    xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

  2. Stuart – Kronwall2:35

    xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  3. Rafalski – Ericsson8:19

    xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0

Calgary Flames

Forward lines

  1. bestHagman – Stajan – Glencross7:53

    xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0

  2. Morrison – Moss – Bourque6:18

    xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1

  3. Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay7:37

    xG 0.34–0.20 (64%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2

  4. Kostopoulos – Jackman – Backlund4:06

    xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestRegehr – Bouwmeester13:51

    xG 0.77–0.16 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0

  2. Sarich – Giordano13:28

    xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2

  3. Bouwmeester – Giordano2:42

    xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 4.4 xGDET 1.9 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 94/100 · #58 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.39 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 8% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 85% of the time.

CGY winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).