Sat, Jan 8, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Buffalo Sabres 2, Phoenix Coyotes 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 013 | 17 | 08 | 14 | 232 |
| PHX | 06 | 118 | 09 | 01 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:34BUFJordan LeopoldPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 12:31PHXScottie UpshallAssists: Adrian Aucoin, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- OT 3:12BUFDrew StaffordGWGAssists: Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:55BUFJason Pominville: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:20PHXShane Doan: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:26PHXWojtek Wolski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:25BUFLuke Adam: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:12BUFJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:24BUFChris Butler: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Connolly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Pominville – Vanek10:34
xG 0.53–0.25 (67%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Hecht – Stafford – Ennis12:01
xG 0.98–0.92 (52%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Gaustad7:05
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Gaustad – McCormick2:15
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRivet – Morrisonn7:10
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Morrisonn – Butler6:50
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Leopold – Montador17:17
xG 0.76–0.83 (48%)attempts 16–22goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Belanger – Upshall11:43
xG 1.09–0.74 (59%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal8:27
xG 0.22–0.03 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Korpikoski – Hanzal4:54
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Wolski – Turris3:38
xG 0.01–0.18 (7%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle16:40
xG 1.35–0.89 (60%)attempts 26–14goals 0–0
- Lepisto – Ekman-Larsson9:39
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Yandle4:26
xG 0.15–0.15 (49%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).