Sun, Jan 9, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Atlanta Thrashers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 18 | 112 | 18 | 00 | 328 |
| CAR | 19 | 210 | 012 | 13 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20CARTuomo RuutuPPAssists: Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:46ATLBryan LittlePPAssists: Nik Antropov, Toby Enstrom · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 3:57CARZac DalpeAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Tuomo Ruutu · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 5:33CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Joe Corvo, Jamie McBain · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 7:57ATLNiclas BergforsPPAssists: Andrew Ladd, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 10:42ATLBryan LittleAssists: Anthony Stewart, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 2:09CARErik ColeGWGAssists: Ian White, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:55ATLChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:16CARTuomo Ruutu: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:59ATLBrent Sopel: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:05ATLBryan Little: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:59CARErik Cole: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:25CARErik Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:06ATLToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 17:09CARChad LaRose: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Peverley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Peverley – Bergfors9:57
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Boulton – Antropov – Stapleton9:41
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Stewart – Little9:48
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Machacek – Cormier – Burmistrov7:31
xG 0.06–0.44 (11%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien16:34
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian13:35
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Sopel – Hainsey8:19
xG 0.23–0.82 (22%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – LaRose – Skinner11:15
xG 0.54–0.18 (74%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Sutter – Dalpe12:00
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Cole – Staal – Boychuk13:32
xG 0.74–0.63 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Bodie – Matsumoto3:58
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – White3:24
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain13:09
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Corvo – Gleason17:57
xG 0.69–0.52 (57%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).