Mon, Jan 10, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Phoenix Coyotes 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 010 | 215 | 28 | 433 |
| STL | 111 | 08 | 217 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:53STLDavid BackesAssists: Matt D'Agostini, Alexander Steen · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 6:39PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Ed Jovanovski, Adrian Aucoin · Deflected, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 9:15PHXLee StempniakUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 3:01STLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 3:21STLBrad WinchesterAssists: Jay McClement, Brad Boyes · Tip-in, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 9:58PHXKyle TurrisAssists: Sami Lepisto, Taylor Pyatt · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 16:48PHXTaylor PyattGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:31STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:31PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:22PHXSami Lepisto: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:38PHXEd Jovanovski: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:15STLRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P2 19:39STLAlex Pietrangelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:00STLEric Brewer: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Belanger – Upshall13:09
xG 0.53–0.09 (85%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak5:22
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal11:27
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Bissonnette – Korpikoski – Turris2:08
xG 0.01–0.07 (16%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLepisto – Ekman-Larsson7:58
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Aucoin – Jovanovski18:14
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Morris – Yandle17:14
xG 0.59–0.59 (50%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Crombeen – Berglund10:54
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Janssen – Porter – Hensick2:13
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Boyes – Winchester – McClement10:21
xG 0.64–0.69 (48%)attempts 14–12goals 1–2
- Backes – Sobotka – D'Agostini14:41
xG 0.52–0.76 (41%)attempts 12–17goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Colaiacovo – Johnson12:11
xG 0.72–0.70 (51%)attempts 17–14goals 0–3
- Jackman – Pietrangelo17:21
xG 0.81–0.86 (49%)attempts 18–17goals 2–1
- Brewer – Polak16:42
xG 0.18–0.43 (30%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).