Tue, Jan 11, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 16 | 317 | 533 |
| BUF | 214 | 015 | 011 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:00BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Cody McCormick, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P1 9:59BUFCody McCormickAssists: Nathan Gerbe · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 12:41PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Daniel Brière · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 18:11PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 2:17PHIVille LeinoGWGAssists: Daniel Brière, Scott Hartnell · Deflected, 0.42 xG3–2
- P3 11:36PHIMike RichardsUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 18:05PHIScott HartnellENAssists: Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:26BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:28BUFJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:50PHIAndrej Meszaros: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:23BUFPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:23PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:04PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min
- P2 16:04BUFTyler Ennis: Diving2 min
- P2 19:13PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Giroux – van Riemsdyk4:19
xG 0.73–0.03 (97%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino11:22
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
- Richards – Nodl – Powe2:52
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Shelley – Betts – Carcillo5:48
xG 0.11–0.08 (56%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros14:41
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Bartulis11:02
xG 0.70–0.50 (58%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Timonen – Meszaros2:48
xG 0.01–0.03 (30%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – McCormick – Gerbe8:26
xG 1.29–0.63 (67%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Hecht – Stafford – Ennis10:12
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Gaustad – McCormick – Vanek3:30
xG 0.06–0.01 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Vanek2:21
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrisonn – Weber13:51
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Rivet – Leopold2:27
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Sekera – Myers12:27
xG 1.20–1.29 (48%)attempts 19–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).