Tue, Jan 11, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Vancouver Canucks 4, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 120 | 110 | 118 | 03 | 2 | 451 |
| NYI | 09 | 116 | 215 | 01 | 1 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 15:13NYIJack HillenAssists: Blake Comeau, Milan Jurcina · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 19:44VANRyan KeslerAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Raffi Torres · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 3:14NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Rob Schremp, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 14:24NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Dylan Reese, Rob Schremp · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 14:58VANKevin BieksaUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Rob Schremp scored
- 2. VAN Mason Raymond scored
- 3. NYI PA Parenteau stopped
- 4. VAN Jeff Tambellini stopped
- 5. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 6. VAN Ryan Kesler scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:05NYIJeremy Colliton: Holding2 min
- P1 17:52NYIJeremy Colliton: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:57VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:57NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:12VANJeff Tambellini: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:57VANKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schremp won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Tambellini – Raymond9:52
xG 1.01–0.48 (68%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Bolduc – Glass – Hansen5:25
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows14:57
xG 1.08–0.75 (59%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Kesler – Glass – Hansen2:26
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa18:32
xG 1.34–1.05 (56%)attempts 21–19goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Edler19:33
xG 1.05–0.91 (54%)attempts 24–22goals 1–1
- Alberts – Ballard12:22
xG 0.73–0.83 (47%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestSchremp – Comeau – Grabner12:36
xG 0.94–0.77 (55%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:23
xG 0.84–0.82 (51%)attempts 17–9goals 0–2
- Colliton – Rakhshani – Bailey9:42
xG 0.30–0.48 (39%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Konopka – Joensuu – Martin4:05
xG 0.14–0.49 (22%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReese – Hillen2:20
xG 0.59–0.22 (72%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:58
xG 0.90–0.79 (53%)attempts 20–17goals 0–1
- Martinek – Hamonic2:09
xG 0.03–0.18 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).