Wed, Jan 12, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Washington Capitals 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 09 | 05 | 023 |
| TBL | 214 | 118 | 06 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58TBLDominic MooreGWGAssists: Nate Thompson, Dwayne Roloson · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 16:04TBLSean BergenheimAssists: Victor Hedman, Steve Downie · Tip-in, 0.37 xG0–2
- P2 18:18TBLSimon GagneAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:09WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:27TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min
- P1 12:52TBLMattias Ohlund: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:14WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:20WSHJay Beagle: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:20TBLRyan Malone: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:47TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:47WSHScott Hannan: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:47WSHScott Hannan: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:26WSHBrooks Laich: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:35WSHJohn Carlson: Kneeing2 min
- P3 18:24WSHJay Beagle: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Laich – Beagle – Johansson6:06
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Perreault7:44
xG 0.09–0.22 (28%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom12:50
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Steckel – Gordon5:10
xG 0.15–0.66 (19%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hannan – Alzner4:07
xG 0.01–0.04 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Green – Carlson2:36
xG 0.02–0.11 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson11:29
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Bergenheim – Downie2:13
xG 0.47–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Bergenheim4:51
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell2:18
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Moore – Downie – Purcell3:57
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Lundin14:15
xG 1.05–0.28 (79%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
- Ohlund – Hedman2:08
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Clark – Hedman8:49
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).