Thu, Jan 13, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Ottawa Senators 6, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 210 | 417 | 011 | 638 |
| NYI | 18 | 17 | 29 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 7:23NYITrevor GilliesAssists: Zenon Konopka · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 9:50OTTJesse WinchesterAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 7:13OTTMilan MichalekSHAssists: Chris Kelly, Matt Carkner · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 10:31NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Travis Hamonic, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 10:51OTTChris KellyAssists: Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 13:01OTTNick FolignoGWGAssists: Corey Locke, Matt Carkner · Wrist, 0.40 xG5–2
- P2 14:27OTTZack SmithAssists: Jesse Winchester, Brian Lee · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–2
- P3 1:49NYIPA ParenteauAssists: Milan Jurcina, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–3
- P3 10:50NYIMilan JurcinaAssists: John Tavares, Michael Grabner · Slap, 0.01 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:24OTTErik Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:34OTTChris Neil: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:41OTTPeter Regin: Interference2 min
- P2 9:41NYIRob Schremp: Diving2 min
- P3 8:39NYIPA Parenteau: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:39NYIMatt Moulson: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:17NYIBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colliton won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestLocke – Shannon – Foligno9:38
xG 0.86–0.13 (87%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Regin – Smith – Winchester6:55
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly10:28
xG 0.54–0.55 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Michalek14:02
xG 0.39–0.47 (46%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Lee13:34
xG 1.04–0.25 (80%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Kuba – Carkner12:06
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Phillips – Karlsson19:08
xG 0.40–0.72 (35%)attempts 10–25goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares16:32
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 27–14goals 2–0
- Grabner – Bailey – Martin3:41
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Colliton – Schremp – Comeau2:45
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Schremp – Comeau – Joensuu3:36
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Jurcina4:44
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Martinek – Gervais10:41
xG 0.27–0.25 (53%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Hillen – Hamonic4:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).