Fri, Jan 14, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 49 | 010 | 16 | 525 |
| TBL | 19 | 111 | 012 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:06TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 7:59NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Travis Zajac, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 9:19NJDBrian RolstonAssists: Dainius Zubrus · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 11:44NJDPatrik EliasGWGAssists: Andy Greene, Brian Rolston · Slap, 0.19 xG3–1
- P1 15:54NJDTravis ZajacSHAssists: Colin White · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 14:55TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 13:40NJDIlya KovalchukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:56NJDColin White: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:38TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:38NJDMatthew Corrente: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:12NJDRod Pelley: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:35NJDJason Arnott: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:34TBLMattias Ohlund: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sestito won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Kovalchuk – Palmieri6:02
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri4:22
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 2–0
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus13:25
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Arnott – Mair – Zharkov2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fayne14:49
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Fraser6:46
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Fraser – Corrente8:54
xG 0.15–0.15 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Malone – Stamkos6:54
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos3:15
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Malone3:21
xG 0.06–0.02 (78%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hall – Moore – Tyrell2:45
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Kubina3:43
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Kubina2:48
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kubina – Lundin2:02
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).