Sat, Jan 15, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Atlanta Thrashers 1, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 013 | 110 | 07 | 130 |
| DAL | 16 | 210 | 311 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:31DALTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Brad Richards · Slap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 6:21ATLAndrew LaddAssists: Toby Enstrom, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 13:58DALAdam BurishGWGAssists: Stephane Robidas, Nicklas Grossmann · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 19:05DALTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Kari Lehtonen · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 11:09DALJames NealAssists: Loui Eriksson, Brad Richards · Snap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 16:54DALJames NealPPAssists: Stephane Robidas, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 18:52DALJeff WoywitkaPPAssists: Brenden Morrow, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:56DALKrys Barch: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:48ATLAnthony Stewart: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 9:34ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:34DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:49DALMark Fistric: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:35DALJeff Woywitka: Interference2 min
- P2 10:30ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:30DALBrian Sutherby: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:43ATLEric Boulton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:04ATLEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:58ATLAnthony Stewart: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 18:52ATLAnthony Stewart: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Burish won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Little – Kane10:24
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Machacek – Cormier – Burmistrov2:58
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Boulton – Antropov – Thorburn6:48
xG 0.02–0.06 (24%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors7:19
xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien15:51
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Sopel – Hainsey10:23
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian2:20
xG 0.02–0.02 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Burish – Benn8:21
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Barch – Sutherby – Wandell2:13
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Morrow – Ribeiro10:24
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Sutherby – Burish – Wandell3:53
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Fistric7:33
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Daley7:15
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Fistric6:21
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).