Sun, Jan 16, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 3, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 28 | 010 | 15 | 323 |
| CHI | 16 | 110 | 418 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04NSHMartin EratPPAssists: Cody Franson, Alexander Sulzer · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 6:38CHIDave BollandAssists: Bryan Bickell · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 14:15NSHJ-P DumontPPAssists: Shea Weber, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 11:58CHIDave BollandAssists: Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 3:45NSHJ-P DumontAssists: Chris Mueller · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 9:19CHITroy BrouwerPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Tomas Kopecky · Slap, 0.47 xG3–3
- P3 9:59CHITroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 14:08CHIBryan BickellAssists: Brian Campbell, Brent Seabrook · Slap, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 16:25CHIJonathan ToewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:16CHIJonathan Toews: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 7:18NSHShea Weber: Holding2 min
- P1 7:30CHITroy Brouwer: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:35CHIDuncan Keith: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:57CHIPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:04CHIBryan Bickell: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:31CHIBrent Seabrook: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:34NSHAlexander Sulzer: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:38NSHRyan Suter: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:56NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Dumont – Halischuk – Mueller6:12
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Smithson – Ward – Spaling9:49
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Erat – Goc – Kostitsyn8:34
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson10:14
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Franson4:26
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Klein – Sulzer6:17
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Sulzer – Franson4:24
xG 0.09–0.06 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPisani – Bolland – Bickell8:22
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Brouwer – Toews – Kane11:12
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Hossa – Kopecky – Sharp9:56
xG 0.23–0.12 (65%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Sharp – Kane2:15
xG 0.06–0.02 (79%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Hjalmarsson15:06
xG 0.54–0.25 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 3–0
- Hendry – Leddy10:18
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Keith – Seabrook14:02
xG 0.33–0.15 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).