Sun, Jan 16, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 212 | 012 | 228 |
| ANA | 212 | 19 | 07 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:23ANALuca SbisaPPAssists: Toni Lydman, Joffrey Lupul · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 17:00ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Jason Blake · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 17:32ANATeemu SelannePPGWGAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Cam Fowler · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 18:18EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Sam Gagner, Taylor Chorney · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 18:44EDMSam GagnerAssists: Linus Omark · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:00EDMSteve MacIntyre: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:58ANAMatt Beleskey: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:25ANASaku Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:29ANALuca Sbisa: Interference2 min
- P2 16:30EDMTaylor Chorney: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:20EDMTheo Peckham: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:17EDMTheo Peckham: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 16:48ANAToni Lydman: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:28ANAAndreas Lilja: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Ryan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Omark – Paajarvi13:54
xG 0.96–0.67 (59%)attempts 22–6goals 2–0
- Jones – Reddox – Cogliano9:28
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Penner – Hall10:53
xG 0.09–0.88 (9%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Peckham13:51
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Smid – Petry12:56
xG 0.71–0.90 (44%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Strudwick – Chorney11:06
xG 0.34–0.81 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Blake9:40
xG 0.77–0.04 (95%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Lupul – Lapierre – McMillan8:00
xG 0.65–0.59 (52%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Perry – Ryan – Beleskey13:12
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky11:41
xG 0.90–0.26 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Sutton – Sbisa8:36
xG 0.67–0.23 (75%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Sutton – Lilja2:18
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).