Mon, Jan 17, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 310 | 06 | 527 |
| NYI | 09 | 210 | 010 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25NJDVladimir ZharkovAssists: Mattias Tedenby, Jason Arnott · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 5:22NJDIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Andy Greene, Travis Zajac · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 6:40NJDMattias TedenbyGWGAssists: Mark Fraser, Rod Pelley · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 10:56NYIPA ParenteauAssists: Blake Comeau, Radek Martinek · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 11:50NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Josh Bailey, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 16:59NJDRod PelleyAssists: Mark Fraser, Jason Arnott · Tip-in, 0.37 xG4–2
- P2 17:53NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Patrik Elias, Brian Rolston · Wrist, 0.35 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:09NYIJack Hillen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:56NJDMark Fayne: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:57NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:57NJDMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:29NJDMattias Tedenby: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:39NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:39NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:53NYIJesse Joensuu: Holding2 min
- P1 19:54NJDMattias Tedenby: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Schremp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri10:37
xG 1.31–0.59 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Arnott – Zharkov – Tedenby9:57
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus12:04
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Clarkson – Sestito – Pelley9:52
xG 0.21–0.35 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Fraser15:32
xG 1.19–0.56 (68%)attempts 15–20goals 2–1
- White – Greene16:21
xG 1.09–0.50 (69%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Fayne17:52
xG 0.98–0.57 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares9:43
xG 0.62–0.08 (88%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Comeau – Grabner – Bailey3:52
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Konopka – Joensuu – Martin4:07
xG 0.12–0.32 (27%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Moulson – Bailey – Tavares2:11
xG 0.08–0.35 (19%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Reese12:33
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Jurcina – Gervais2:27
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Martinek – Hillen15:34
xG 0.64–1.06 (38%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).