Mon, Jan 17, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 4, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 112 | 210 | 114 | 436 |
| PHX | 19 | 012 | 115 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 12:09PHXDerek MorrisAssists: Keith Yandle, Shane Doan · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 4:03SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 17:19SJSLogan CouturePPGWGAssists: Dan Boyle, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 12:01PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 19:11SJSJoe ThorntonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:54PHXSami Lepisto: Interference2 min
- P2 5:52SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:11SJSDany Heatley: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:06PHXDavid Schlemko: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:15SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:27PHXShane Doan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMayers – Nichol – McGinn4:54
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Pavelski – Setoguchi11:39
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Thornton – Heatley – Couture9:33
xG 0.64–0.89 (42%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- Nichol – McGinn – Mashinter4:20
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray12:35
xG 0.78–0.29 (73%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Huskins – Vlasic2:40
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Huskins – Demers4:29
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Stempniak – Korpikoski10:08
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Doan – Belanger – Upshall10:51
xG 0.29–0.27 (51%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal13:03
xG 0.49–0.71 (41%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Bissonnette – Turris – Boedker3:14
xG 0.02–0.27 (6%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Ekman-Larsson4:24
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle16:27
xG 0.67–0.69 (49%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Schlemko – Ekman-Larsson6:33
xG 0.22–0.29 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).