Thu, Jan 20, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 4, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 213 | 29 | 433 |
| BOS | 113 | 19 | 018 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:01BOSDennis SeidenbergAssists: Mark Stuart, Marc Savard · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 1:04BUFCody McCormickAssists: Tim Connolly, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 4:51BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Shawn Thornton, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 10:36BUFNathan GerbePPAssists: Tyler Myers, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 5:13BUFThomas VanekGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 16:40BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Thomas Vanek, Jochen Hecht · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:09BOSSteven Kampfer: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:37BUFMarc-Andre Gragnani: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:21BUFThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:46BOSMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:50BUFNathan Gerbe: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:11BOSBlake Wheeler: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 19:02BUFPaul Gaustad: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – McCormick – Ennis5:32
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek11:43
xG 1.08–0.81 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Grier – Gaustad – Gerbe4:44
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe5:33
xG 0.21–0.16 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Weber3:11
xG 0.24–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Leopold – Montador13:51
xG 0.81–0.59 (58%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Morrisonn – Myers6:58
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Thornton – Campbell – Wheeler9:05
xG 0.27–0.23 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand11:12
xG 0.69–0.75 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Savard – Ryder – Horton11:53
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
- Krejci – Lucic – Seguin8:36
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Seidenberg11:25
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Ference – Boychuk2:52
xG 0.15–0.09 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Stuart3:47
xG 0.10–0.14 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).