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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 20, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia

Ottawa Senators 2, Philadelphia Flyers 6

Away

Ottawa Senators

2

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.

PHI winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT0721307227
PHI2101538623

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:03PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Sean O'Donnell · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 4:14PHIMike RichardsAssists: Braydon Coburn, Andreas Nodl · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–2
  3. P2 16:17PHIMike RichardsPPGWGAssists: Chris Pronger, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
  4. P2 17:56OTTMilan MichalekSHAssists: Jarkko Ruutu · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
  5. P2 19:14OTTNick FolignoAssists: Mike Fisher, Daniel Alfredsson · Backhand, 0.36 xG2–3
  6. P3 7:50PHIScott HartnellAssists: Daniel Brière, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–4
  7. P3 11:14PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Mike Richards, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
  8. P3 12:34PHIAndrej MeszarosPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Mike Richards · Slap, 0.00 xG2–6
Penalties (28)
  1. P1 8:34PHIChris Pronger: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 7:02PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
  3. P2 7:21PHIDarroll Powe: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 15:17OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P2 16:10OTTJesse Winchester: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 12:12OTTJesse Winchester: Fighting5 min · PPG
  7. P3 12:12OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 12:12OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 12:12PHIDarroll Powe: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 12:12PHIDarroll Powe: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 12:12OTTChris Campoli: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 12:12PHIJeff Carter: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 13:33OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 14:55OTTRyan Shannon: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 14:55PHIDaniel Brière: Holding the stick2 min
  16. P3 15:25OTTZack Smith: Misconduct10 min
  17. P3 16:12OTTNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
  18. P3 16:12PHIClaude Giroux: Fighting5 min
  19. P3 16:13OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
  20. P3 16:13PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
  21. P3 16:13PHIJody Shelley: Game misconduct10 min
  22. P3 16:13OTTJarkko Ruutu: Fighting5 min
  23. P3 16:13PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
  24. P3 16:13OTTChris Neil: Game misconduct10 min
  25. P3 16:13OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  26. P3 16:13OTTMatt Carkner: Game misconduct10 min
  27. P3 16:13PHISean O'Donnell: Fighting5 min
  28. P3 16:13PHISean O'Donnell: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
47% to win53% to win
← OTT attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Fisher
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTPHI
27Shots on goal23
2.1Expected goals2.3
53Shot attempts38
28Faceoffs won31
3Power plays4
69Penalty minutes57
17Hits29
7Blocked shots16
3Giveaways8
7Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Ottawa Senators

Forward lines

  1. bestAlfredsson – Kelly – Michalek5:47

    xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0

  2. Neil – Smith – Winchester7:18

    xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1

  3. Kelly – Foligno – Butler2:29

    xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  4. Ruutu – Kelly – Shannon3:59

    xG 0.09–0.11 (43%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPhillips – Karlsson11:19

    xG 0.63–0.07 (91%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0

  2. Carkner – Karlsson2:09

    xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0

  3. Lee – Karlsson2:04

    xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino9:57

    xG 1.10–0.22 (84%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0

  2. Zherdev – Richards – Nodl7:06

    xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0

  3. Richards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk3:48

    xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0

  4. Carter – Giroux – Powe3:39

    xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestO'Donnell – Meszaros13:42

    xG 0.76–0.67 (53%)attempts 7–14goals 2–1

  2. Timonen – Coburn13:35

    xG 0.58–0.57 (51%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0

  3. Pronger – Carle15:30

    xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 2.3 xGOTT 2.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #365 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.95 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.

PHI winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).