Thu, Jan 20, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
New York Rangers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 014 | 115 | 140 |
| CAR | 216 | 112 | 111 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:39CARChad LaRoseAssists: Jeff Skinner, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 14:43CARJussi JokinenPPGWGAssists: Joe Corvo, Tuomo Ruutu · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 5:41CARBrandon SutterAssists: Sergei Samsonov · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 11:40NYRBrandon PrustAssists: Chad Kolarik, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 15:51CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Chad LaRose · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:01NYRMichael Sauer: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:48CARJoni Pitkanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:36NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:36CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:45NYRKris Newbury: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:45CARRyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:57CARIan White: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:49NYRSean Avery: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:49NYRSean Avery: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:49CARErik Cole: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNewbury – Kolarik – Weise4:00
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Avery – Gaborik – Anisimov13:22
xG 0.72–0.67 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Drury – Newbury – Weise2:08
xG 0.02–0.07 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Drury – Boyle – Prust6:51
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Gilroy15:42
xG 1.21–0.94 (56%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Eminger – McDonagh14:31
xG 0.91–0.78 (54%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Staal – Girardi18:39
xG 1.27–1.33 (49%)attempts 22–17goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – LaRose – Skinner10:46
xG 1.65–0.60 (73%)attempts 17–11goals 2–1
- Samsonov – Cole – Staal12:51
xG 0.76–0.78 (50%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Bodie – Tlusty – Carter8:01
xG 0.34–0.68 (33%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Dwyer – Sutter12:14
xG 0.38–1.16 (25%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – White3:26
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason14:06
xG 0.69–0.78 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Harrison – White10:25
xG 0.64–0.87 (42%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).