Thu, Jan 20, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Atlanta Thrashers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 19 | 09 | 112 | 01 | 2 | 331 |
| ATL | 112 | 110 | 05 | 02 | 1 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:26ATLNiclas BergforsAssists: Freddy Meyer, Nigel Dawes · Snap, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 17:13TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 14:12ATLAnthony StewartPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Brent Sopel · Snap, 0.25 xG1–2
- P3 0:32TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Steve Downie, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ATL Bryan Little scored
- 2. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 3. ATL Alexander Burmistrov stopped
- 4. TBL Adam Hall scored
- 5. ATL Andrew Ladd stopped
- 6. TBL Ryan Malone stopped
- 7. ATL Nigel Dawes stopped
- 8. TBL Dominic Moore scored
Penalties (6)
- P2 11:40ATLEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:40TBLDominic Moore: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:38TBLMattias Ohlund: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:01ATLDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:44ATLPatrice Cormier: Holding2 min
- OT 4:49TBLPavel Kubina: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Burmistrov won the faceoff against Hall
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Downie – Stamkos3:49
xG 0.48–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Malone – Moore – Purcell5:04
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos7:03
xG 0.41–0.24 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Gagne – Malone – Thompson3:52
xG 0.11–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Hedman12:11
xG 0.88–0.18 (83%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Kubina – Jones12:11
xG 0.69–0.07 (91%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Kubina – Hedman2:24
xG 0.05–0.02 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- Antropov – Dawes – Stapleton8:17
xG 0.05–0.07 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Burmistrov9:51
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Stewart – Little – Cormier9:25
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors11:27
xG 0.38–0.94 (29%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Meyer16:56
xG 0.56–0.67 (45%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Sopel – Oduya14:06
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien18:49
xG 0.58–1.01 (37%)attempts 16–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).