Fri, Jan 21, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 4, Calgary Flames 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 27 | 17 | 17 | 421 |
| CGY | 27 | 36 | 26 | 719 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Brendan Morrison, Robyn Regehr · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–1
- P1 8:34DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 12:12DALBrad RichardsAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 15:10CGYOlli JokinenAssists: David Moss · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 11:51CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Tim Jackman, Adam Pardy · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 17:10CGYDavid MossAssists: Niklas Hagman, Cory Sarich · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 18:04CGYBrendan MorrisonGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P2 19:12DALNicklas GrossmannAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 0:31DALJames NealAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–5
- P3 4:20CGYJarome IginlaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–6
- P3 12:12CGYDavid MossPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.53 xG4–7
Penalties (8)
- P2 2:11CGYNiklas Hagman: Holding2 min
- P2 13:34CGYAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:03DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:05DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:05DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:05CGYCory Sarich: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:43CGYDavid Moss: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:55DALBrenden Morrow: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Morrison
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Richards – Neal3:53
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Richards3:30
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Barch – Gagnon – Wandell3:35
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Morrow – Ribeiro2:21
xG 0.08–0.07 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann16:53
xG 0.89–0.28 (76%)attempts 13–13goals 3–2
- Skrastins – Fistric2:39
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Fistric – Niskanen9:30
xG 0.04–0.21 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Iginla – Tanguay13:08
xG 1.28–0.69 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 3–2
- Hagman – Stajan – Glencross3:16
xG 0.13–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jackman – Bourque – Backlund4:18
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Kotalik – Stajan – Glencross8:23
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Bouwmeester19:14
xG 1.36–0.81 (63%)attempts 14–17goals 4–2
- Sarich – Giordano17:18
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Babchuk – Pardy11:46
xG 0.10–0.17 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).