Sat, Jan 22, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Anaheim Ducks 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 18 | 211 | 05 | 02 | 1 | 426 |
| MTL | 07 | 110 | 223 | 00 | 0 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:07ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Teemu Selanne · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 7:55MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 16:26ANABobby RyanAssists: Joffrey Lupul · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 19:43ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Saku Koivu, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 16:20MTLMathieu DarcheAssists: Yannick Weber, Andrei Kostitsyn · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:47MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban · Backhand, 0.27 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MTL Benoit Pouliot stopped
- 2. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 3. MTL Andrei Kostitsyn stopped
- 4. ANA Bobby Ryan scored
- 5. MTL Brian Gionta stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:02MTLP.K. Subban: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:45MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:52ANASaku Koivu: Interference2 min
- P2 6:45ANASaku Koivu: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:42ANATodd Marchant: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:30MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:43ANABrandon McMillan: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:28MTLBenoit Pouliot: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:48ANAJason Blake: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:45ANASaku Koivu: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Ryan – McMillan9:36
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Marchant – Parros – Sexton4:47
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Lupul – Lapierre – Beleskey8:05
xG 0.02–0.11 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake10:06
xG 0.19–0.54 (26%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Fowler5:36
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Lilja – Fowler11:03
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Lydman – Lilja2:30
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Pacioretty11:53
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Moen – Plekanec – Kostitsyn3:58
xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Darche – Pouliot – Desharnais8:22
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Moen – White – Engqvist3:52
xG 0.04–0.10 (27%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski15:33
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Spacek – Weber10:38
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gill – Subban10:43
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).