Sat, Jan 22, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 114 | 36 | 530 |
| STL | 29 | 05 | 07 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07STLEric BrewerAssists: Alexander Steen, Brad Boyes · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 7:30STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 11:19CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: R.J. Umberger, Kristian Huselius · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P2 7:36CBJJared BollAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Matt Calvert · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 3:40CBJAndrew MurrayGWGAssists: Jan Hejda, Samuel Pahlsson · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 16:32CBJRick NashPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 18:30CBJFedor TyutinENAssists: Derick Brassard, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.51 xG5–2
Penalties (19)
- P1 0:10STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:10CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:28STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:28CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:30CBJDerek Dorsett: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:39STLJay McClement: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:51CBJMarc Methot: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:51STLTyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:33STLRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P3 4:04CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:26CBJGrant Clitsome: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:42STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P3 15:48STLIan Cole: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:37STLErik Johnson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:37STLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:37STLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:37CBJMarc Methot: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:37CBJJan Hejda: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:37STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHuselius – Vermette – Umberger13:11
xG 0.90–0.22 (80%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Calvert5:11
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Pahlsson – Murray – Dorsett11:38
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek9:42
xG 0.15–0.58 (20%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Methot14:34
xG 0.91–0.29 (76%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Tyutin – Hejda2:42
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Russell14:06
xG 0.43–0.42 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Steen – Backes13:03
xG 0.47–0.09 (83%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Winchester – McClement – D'Agostini7:06
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Reaves – McRae2:41
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Oshie – Sobotka – Berglund12:16
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Polak14:48
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Strachan – Cole9:30
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Pietrangelo18:12
xG 0.46–0.82 (36%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).