Sun, Jan 23, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 17 | 112 | 226 |
| NJD | 28 | 29 | 16 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:20NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Andy Greene, Travis Zajac · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:58NJDJason ArnottAssists: Adam Mair, Mark Fayne · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 7:22FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Cory Stillman, Steve Bernier · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 12:48NJDBrian RolstonPPGWGAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, David Clarkson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 17:19NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Brian Rolston, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 5:56FLAMarty ReasonerAssists: Radek Dvorak, Cory Stillman · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 18:13NJDJason ArnottENAssists: Rod Pelley, Henrik Tallinder · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:38NJDJason Arnott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:53FLAKeaton Ellerby: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:42FLAJoe Callahan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:00FLAMike Weaver: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sestito won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Dvorak – Reasoner13:06
xG 0.74–0.48 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Weiss – Frolik – Dadonov14:10
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Olesz – Booth – Santorelli9:13
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Bernier – Booth – Matthias6:18
xG 0.03–0.12 (18%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCallahan – Wilson2:41
xG 0.58–0.09 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Weaver – Garrison15:37
xG 0.68–0.48 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Callahan – Ellerby11:42
xG 0.38–0.21 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Mair – Vasyunov7:48
xG 0.51–0.15 (78%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus12:32
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Tedenby7:07
xG 0.26–0.33 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Zajac – Vasyunov – Tedenby2:03
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fayne16:42
xG 0.58–0.45 (56%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Fraser9:29
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Volchenkov3:51
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).