Mon, Jan 24, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 17 | 011 | 124 |
| CGY | 18 | 114 | 15 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:14CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Matt Stajan, Niklas Hagman · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 10:32NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Colin Wilson, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–1
- P2 13:01CGYJarome IginlaPPGWGAssists: Matt Stajan, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
- P3 14:18CGYBrendan MorrisonPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:33NSHRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:49NSHMatt Halischuk: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:57CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:44CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:03NSHDavid Legwand: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:50CGYCory Sarich: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:44NSHJoel Ward: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:20NSHPatric Hornqvist: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:44CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:55CGYCory Sarich: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:31NSHJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmithson – Ward – Spaling4:44
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Erat – Goc – Kostitsyn5:57
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson4:15
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Belak – Halischuk – Mueller2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson7:48
xG 0.85–0.03 (97%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Suter – Weber14:43
xG 0.79–0.64 (55%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Klein – O'Brien2:01
xG 0.03–0.03 (48%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Kostopoulos – Backlund2:25
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Backlund2:32
xG 0.15–0.06 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Morrison – Iginla – Tanguay7:41
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Bourque7:42
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Pardy4:27
xG 0.29–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Giordano – Pardy3:21
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano2:15
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).