Tue, Jan 25, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 4, New York Rangers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 14 | 212 | 11 | 417 |
| NYR | 012 | 112 | 211 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:35FLARostislav OleszAssists: Chris Higgins, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 2:17NYRDerek StepanAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 3:03FLAKeaton EllerbyAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 4:11FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Bryan Allen, Radek Dvorak · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 1:14NYRBrandon PrustAssists: Michael Sauer, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 3:05NYRBrian BoylePPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
- P3 11:41FLAMike WeaverGWGAssists: Rostislav Olesz, Mike Santorelli · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:57FLADarcy Hordichuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:54FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Holding2 min
- P2 13:02NYRSean Avery: Interference2 min
- P3 1:58FLAMike Santorelli: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:32FLAStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Dvorak – Santorelli5:20
xG 0.61–0.35 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Weiss – Higgins – Dadonov3:47
xG 0.07–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Booth – Frolik – Matthias3:10
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Hordichuk – Dadonov3:15
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Allen – Wideman14:38
xG 0.78–0.93 (46%)attempts 9–18goals 2–2
- Weaver – Garrison14:40
xG 0.18–0.47 (28%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Ellerby – Kulikov12:44
xG 0.10–0.61 (14%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestAvery – Gaborik – Boyle6:25
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello7:57
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Prust – Anisimov – Zuccarello3:59
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Drury – Newbury – Grachev4:30
xG 0.19–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Del Zotto7:13
xG 0.67–0.18 (79%)attempts 11–8goals 1–2
- Staal – Sauer19:16
xG 0.73–0.32 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Gilroy3:41
xG 0.34–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).