Tue, Jan 25, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 115 | 17 | 231 |
| PHI | 210 | 216 | 19 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:42PHIJeff CarterPPAssists: Mike Richards, Chris Pronger · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 18:45PHIKimmo TimonenPPAssists: Chris Pronger, Mike Richards · Slap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 0:23PHIDaniel CarcilloGWGAssists: Chris Pronger · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 12:43MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Hal Gill, Mathieu Darche · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 16:52PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Scott Hartnell, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 15:17MTLMathieu DarcheAssists: Travis Moen, Roman Hamrlik · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 19:35PHIDaniel BrièreENAssists: Chris Pronger, Sergei Bobrovsky · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 3:33MTLScott Gomez: Cross checking2 min
- P1 3:33PHIDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:23PHINikolay Zherdev: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:03MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:14MTLJaroslav Spacek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:34MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:31PHISean O'Donnell: Interference2 min
- P2 8:48MTLDavid Desharnais: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:11MTLDavid Desharnais: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 19:43PHIAndrej Meszaros: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:48PHIAndreas Nodl: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:51PHIChris Pronger: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:24PHIChris Pronger: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:24MTLBenoit Pouliot: Interference2 min
- P3 11:24PHIDaniel Carcillo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:13PHIScott Hartnell: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:48PHIAndrej Meszaros: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Kostitsyn – Pacioretty3:25
xG 0.69–0.16 (81%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Darche – Pouliot – Desharnais3:05
xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Darche – Desharnais – Eller3:48
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Kostitsyn – Eller3:53
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Subban8:42
xG 1.01–0.25 (80%)attempts 21–3goals 1–1
- Spacek – Weber7:51
xG 0.53–0.86 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski10:56
xG 0.21–1.05 (17%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestZherdev – Carter – Giroux8:09
xG 0.89–0.12 (88%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Shelley – Betts – Powe4:44
xG 0.38–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Carcillo – Nodl5:04
xG 0.83–0.72 (54%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino7:50
xG 0.19–0.82 (19%)attempts 3–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn10:25
xG 0.86–0.39 (69%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- O'Donnell – Meszaros10:25
xG 0.81–0.57 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Pronger – Carle9:26
xG 0.87–0.89 (49%)attempts 9–25goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).