Tue, Jan 25, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 07 | 010 | 029 |
| PIT | 09 | 014 | 18 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 8:35PITCraig AdamsGWGAssists: Dustin Jeffrey, Arron Asham · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:26NYITravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:26PITTyler Kennedy: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:53NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:53PITArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:21NYIPA Parenteau: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 11:15PITBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:09NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:58PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:49NYIMatt Martin: Elbowing2 min
- P3 0:00PITBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Konopka – Colliton – Martin5:24
xG 0.04–0.05 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner10:13
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:42
xG 0.43–0.86 (33%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Schremp – Comeau – Bailey9:13
xG 0.06–0.59 (10%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic15:29
xG 0.70–0.34 (67%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Gervais – Reese9:59
xG 0.14–0.58 (19%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Martinek – Hillen17:17
xG 0.40–0.98 (29%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAsham – Adams – Jeffrey4:52
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Letestu10:43
xG 0.55–0.20 (74%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal8:24
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Rupp – Talbot – Conner6:53
xG 0.23–0.61 (27%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang16:30
xG 0.90–0.24 (79%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek15:54
xG 0.68–0.21 (76%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Lovejoy8:40
xG 0.91–0.52 (64%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).