Tue, Jan 25, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 04 | 013 | 09 | 026 |
| TBL | 217 | 04 | 010 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:11TBLSimon GagneGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 12:44TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Brett Clark, Sean Bergenheim · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:53TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:33TORMikhail Grabovski: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:33TORTomas Kaberle: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:29TORTomas Kaberle: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:02TBLSimon Gagne: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:19TORClarke MacArthur: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:19TBLSteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:53TORClarke MacArthur: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:57TORColby Armstrong: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:57TBLSteve Downie: Instigator2 min
- P3 13:57TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:57TBLSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBrent – Rosehill – Brown3:34
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:49
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Boyce – Versteeg4:55
xG 0.13–0.29 (32%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Crabb – Kessel – Bozak10:42
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn11:41
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf17:07
xG 0.45–0.71 (39%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson6:50
xG 0.06–0.45 (12%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Gagne – Purcell7:31
xG 0.47–0.05 (91%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Moore – Bergenheim – Stamkos2:11
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos9:45
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell10:44
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Jones9:56
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Clark – Hedman8:25
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Ohlund – Lundin10:47
xG 0.24–0.36 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).