Wed, Jan 26, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 1, Dallas Stars 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 011 | 111 | 013 | 135 |
| DAL | 15 | 26 | 010 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:38DALAdam BurishAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 2:32DALBrenden MorrowPPGWGAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
- P2 8:22DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 17:44EDMDustin PennerPPAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
Penalties (26)
- P1 2:16DALJamie Langenbrunner: Interference2 min
- P1 13:29DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:29EDMJim Vandermeer: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:43DALMatt Niskanen: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:43EDMColin Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:18EDMDustin Penner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:07EDMJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P2 9:07DALMark Fistric: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:59EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:59DALKrys Barch: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:59DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 12:59DALKrys Barch: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:42DALBrian Sutherby: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:42EDMSam Gagner: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:37EDMTheo Peckham: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:37EDMTheo Peckham: Interference2 min
- P2 16:37DALJames Neal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:37DALJames Neal: Instigator face shield2 min
- P2 16:37DALJames Neal: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:37DALJames Neal: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:02EDMNikolai Khabibulin: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:19EDMLadislav Smid: Elbowing2 min
- P3 9:19EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:19EDMSam Gagner: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:57DALBrenden Morrow: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:57EDMNikolai Khabibulin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Morin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestFraser – Omark – Paajarvi2:04
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi7:10
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Reddox – Cogliano11:40
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Penner – Hall11:55
xG 0.43–0.62 (41%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Smid2:31
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Gilbert2:03
xG 0.07–0.02 (80%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Peckham13:08
xG 0.51–0.52 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Morrow – Ribeiro10:09
xG 0.62–0.17 (78%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Ott – Burish – Morin8:33
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Barch – Sutherby – Gagnon2:13
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal11:48
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Daley16:57
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Robidas – Grossmann11:34
xG 0.64–0.40 (62%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Fistric – Niskanen10:41
xG 0.27–0.23 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).