Wed, Jan 26, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 012 | 110 | 129 |
| CGY | 111 | 24 | 16 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34CGYDavid MossPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:29CGYDavid MossPPGWGAssists: Anton Babchuk, Olli Jokinen · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 18:38CGYAdam PardyAssists: Olli Jokinen, David Moss · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 7:49STLPhilip McRaeAssists: Jay McClement, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–3
- P3 19:16CGYJarome IginlaENAssists: Mark Giordano, Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:19STLRoman Polak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:48STLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:36STLRoman Polak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 3:44CGYRene Bourque: Interference2 min
- P3 19:28CGYAnton Babchuk: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – McClement – McRae5:15
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Steen – Backes – D'Agostini12:13
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Crombeen – McRae – Della Rovere3:21
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Sobotka – Berglund12:00
xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Nikitin8:32
xG 0.82–0.12 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Brewer – Johnson2:45
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Pietrangelo3:58
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Moss – Bourque9:28
xG 0.75–0.12 (86%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Morrison – Iginla – Tanguay15:25
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Hagman – Stajan – Glencross9:10
xG 0.07–0.23 (24%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Backlund7:41
xG 0.22–0.77 (22%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBabchuk – Pardy13:44
xG 0.68–0.59 (54%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Sarich – Giordano13:43
xG 0.11–0.24 (32%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester18:15
xG 0.20–1.09 (15%)attempts 5–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).