Tue, Feb 1, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 110 | 112 | 00 | 1 | 333 |
| TOR | 212 | 14 | 06 | 03 | 2 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:20TORKris VersteegAssists: Colby Armstrong, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:06FLAStephen WeissAssists: Chris Higgins, Bryan Allen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 18:29TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 4:54FLADavid BoothPPAssists: Cory Stillman, Keaton Ellerby · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 6:16TORMikhail GrabovskiPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Nikolay Kulemin · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 16:19FLACory StillmanPPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Stephen Weiss · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TOR Kris Versteeg stopped
- 2. FLA David Booth scored
- 3. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
- 4. FLA Mike Santorelli stopped
- 5. TOR Colby Armstrong scored
- 6. FLA Chris Higgins stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:33FLABryan Allen: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:32FLADennis Wideman: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:00TORJay Rosehill: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:11FLAJason Garrison: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:19FLAScott Timmins: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:24TORTim Brent: Holding2 min
- P2 16:26TORJoey Crabb: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:45TORPhil Kessel: Elbowing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Booth – Santorelli – Frolik4:32
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Stillman – Dvorak – Reasoner9:19
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Olesz – Booth – Santorelli3:11
xG 0.06–0.22 (20%)attempts 3–7goals 0–2
- Weiss – Higgins – Dadonov9:50
xG 0.28–0.48 (36%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllerby – Kulikov3:12
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Allen – Kulikov8:06
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Allen – Wideman2:54
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:40
xG 1.08–0.38 (74%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kessel2:01
xG 0.05–0.02 (71%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Boyce – Versteeg8:15
xG 0.06–0.04 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Brent – Rosehill – Brown3:29
xG 0.03–0.16 (18%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Phaneuf4:19
xG 0.55–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Schenn14:31
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Schenn3:01
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).