Tue, Feb 22, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 212 | 06 | 29 | 427 |
| STL | 115 | 112 | 118 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:07COLDavid JonesAssists: Paul Stastny, John-Michael Liles · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:04COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Paul Stastny · Tip-in, 0.36 xG2–0
- P1 13:05STLPatrik BerglundAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alexander Steen · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 17:20STLChris StewartPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 14:54COLErik JohnsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 17:22COLPaul StastnyGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 17:44STLChris StewartAssists: Andy McDonald, Nikita Nikitin · Deflected, 0.23 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:20STLChris Stewart: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:26STLAndy McDonald: Interference2 min
- P2 14:32COLJay McClement: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:32COLMatt Hunwick: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 18:31STLKevin Shattenkirk: Interference2 min
- P3 10:50STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:56STLAndy McDonald: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – McLeod – O'Reilly6:35
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Jones – Stastny – Stoa11:00
xG 0.81–0.74 (52%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
- Hejduk – Yip – Duchene10:45
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- McClement – Porter – Winnik9:30
xG 0.30–0.65 (32%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Johnson3:10
xG 0.20–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Liles – O'Byrne9:30
xG 0.53–0.53 (50%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Liles – Johnson4:51
xG 0.34–0.46 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Backes – Stewart8:36
xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Boyes – Winchester – Sobotka7:53
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Crombeen – D'Agostini – McRae5:15
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Steen – Oshie – Berglund10:14
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Shattenkirk14:36
xG 0.90–0.51 (64%)attempts 26–12goals 0–1
- Nikitin – Pietrangelo4:20
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak3:06
xG 0.28–0.11 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).