Wed, Feb 2, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 4, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 310 | 19 | 09 | 428 |
| ANA | 011 | 28 | 111 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:14SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Joe Thornton, Douglas Murray · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 7:34SJSBen EagerAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Dan Boyle · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 11:15SJSJason DemersAssists: Ryane Clowe, Devin Setoguchi · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 5:44ANAJoffrey LupulAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Dan Sexton · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 15:39SJSRyane ClowePPGWGAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.18 xG4–1
- P2 17:52ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Corey Perry, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 5:36ANABobby RyanAssists: Corey Perry, Curtis McElhinney · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:57ANAAndy Sutton: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:12SJSDan Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:44SJSRyane Clowe: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:30SJSPatrick Marleau: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:57ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:36SJSDevin Setoguchi: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 9:29SJSBen Eager: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Pavelski – Setoguchi10:00
xG 0.55–0.17 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley11:56
xG 0.63–0.30 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Mayers – Nichol – McCarthy4:52
xG 0.16–0.21 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Wellwood – Eager – Ferriero9:26
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWallin – Demers11:05
xG 0.53–0.04 (93%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Boyle – Murray14:21
xG 0.62–0.67 (48%)attempts 13–15goals 2–2
- Wallin – Vlasic2:00
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Ryan – McMillan10:45
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Marchant – Parros – Voros4:02
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake12:01
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Selanne – Koivu – Sexton2:06
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSutton – Sbisa11:29
xG 0.33–0.21 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky15:36
xG 0.49–0.61 (44%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Lilja – Fowler14:46
xG 0.38–0.63 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).