Thu, Feb 3, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 15 | 211 | 02 | 318 |
| NYR | 07 | 15 | 115 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 8:01NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Henrik Tallinder · Slap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 15:04NJDBrian RolstonGWGAssists: Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 16:25NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Artem Anisimov · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 2:21NYRVinny ProspalPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:00NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:20NYRBrandon Prust: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:40NJDTim Sestito: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:53NJDMattias Tedenby: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:31NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:31NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:10NJDDainius Zubrus: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 1:55NJDAnton Volchenkov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:47NYRMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:12NJDColin White: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:13NJDNick Palmieri: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Zharkov – Tedenby4:59
xG 0.56–0.08 (88%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus9:36
xG 0.37–0.23 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri12:25
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Sestito – Pelley6:34
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Salmela11:40
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- White – Volchenkov15:15
xG 0.59–0.57 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Tallinder – Fayne12:52
xG 0.44–0.61 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Gaborik – Stepan11:12
xG 0.75–0.31 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Boyle – Prust – Zuccarello3:41
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Avery – Boyle – Prust2:23
xG 0.06–0.18 (24%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov10:20
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Sauer – McDonagh11:07
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi15:47
xG 0.70–0.67 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
- Del Zotto – Gilroy11:51
xG 0.52–0.91 (36%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).