Thu, Feb 3, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Nashville Predators 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 013 | 17 | 228 |
| PHI | 19 | 08 | 212 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:18PHIJeff CarterAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:17NSHMarcel GocAssists: Cody Franson, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 6:55PHIVille LeinoPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–2
- P3 10:18NSHJoel WardPPAssists: Martin Erat, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–2
- P3 16:46PHIVille LeinoGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Jeff Carter · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 7:17NSHKevin Klein: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:01NSHKevin Klein: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:01PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:01PHIDaniel Carcillo: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:15NSHJoel Ward: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:57PHIClaude Giroux: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson11:27
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Smithson – Halischuk – Spaling2:00
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Spaling11:30
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Erat – Goc – Kostitsyn11:34
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson16:17
xG 0.91–0.35 (72%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Suter – Weber18:41
xG 0.63–0.57 (52%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Klein – Sulzer12:52
xG 0.15–0.57 (21%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk8:57
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Carter – Giroux13:39
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe5:57
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino14:35
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn12:37
xG 0.74–0.23 (77%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Pronger – Timonen3:35
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle5:18
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).