Fri, Feb 4, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 26 | 011 | 111 | 11 | 429 |
| NJD | 28 | 112 | 08 | 03 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:52FLAChris HigginsAssists: Steve Bernier, Keaton Ellerby · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 8:52NJDTravis ZajacUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 11:01NJDJason ArnottAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Mattias Tedenby · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 12:35FLADennis WidemanPPAssists: David Booth, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 6:20NJDMark FayneAssists: Travis Zajac, Ilya Kovalchuk · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 12:52FLAMike SantorelliSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 2:00FLARostislav OleszGWGAssists: Radek Dvorak · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:11NJDColin White: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:40FLADennis Wideman: Holding2 min
- P2 7:53NJDJohan Hedberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:24FLASteve Bernier: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:07FLAJason Garrison: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Santorelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Dvorak – Reasoner12:16
xG 0.53–0.21 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Olesz – Booth – Santorelli12:02
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Bernier – Booth – Timmins2:38
xG 0.01–0.02 (45%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Bernier – Timmins4:43
xG 0.01–0.09 (11%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Wideman14:59
xG 0.49–0.15 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Ellerby – Kulikov12:35
xG 0.49–0.26 (66%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Weaver – Garrison13:24
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Sestito – Pelley9:39
xG 0.39–0.04 (92%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri13:07
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus12:30
xG 0.34–0.70 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Arnott – Zharkov – Tedenby11:01
xG 0.19–0.62 (23%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Volchenkov15:03
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Fayne15:59
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Greene – Salmela13:12
xG 0.41–1.10 (27%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).