Sat, Feb 5, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Ottawa Senators 3, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 36 | 08 | 09 | 323 |
| NYI | 313 | 012 | 213 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Jack Hillen, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 4:23OTTChris NeilAssists: Mike Fisher, Chris Kelly · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 9:44NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Frans Nielsen, Ty Wishart · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 12:20OTTMike FisherAssists: Chris Kelly, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P1 17:11OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Peter Regin, Chris Campoli · Snap, 0.24 xG3–2
- P1 17:28NYIRob SchrempAssists: Jeremy Colliton, Ty Wishart · Tip-in, 0.26 xG3–3
- P3 1:39NYIRob SchrempPPGWGAssists: Travis Hamonic, Michael Grabner · Tip-in, 0.60 xG3–4
- P3 19:51NYIFrans NielsenENAssists: Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:08NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:08OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:42OTTChris Campoli: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:04NYIJohn Tavares: Interference2 min
- P2 15:39OTTFilip Kuba: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:20OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:20NYIJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:20NYIAndrew MacDonald: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:20OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:20NYIJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:55OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00OTTRobin Lehner: Elbowing2 min
- P3 12:09OTTErik Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:15NYIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Spezza – Michalek4:12
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Shannon – Smith – Winchester4:02
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Shannon2:02
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neil – Kelly7:55
xG 0.14–0.36 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson6:28
xG 0.20–0.05 (81%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Kuba – Phillips2:29
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kuba – Lee3:17
xG 0.05–0.01 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:50
xG 1.02–0.57 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Colliton – Schremp – Bailey9:13
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner10:49
xG 0.81–0.68 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Gillies – Konopka – Martin3:04
xG 0.09–0.07 (54%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic13:19
xG 1.08–0.43 (72%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Jurcina – Wishart12:21
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Martinek – Hillen14:14
xG 1.23–0.84 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).