Sat, Feb 5, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Dallas Stars 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 114 | 08 | 131 |
| PHI | 113 | 18 | 111 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:40PHIAndrej MeszarosAssists: Ville Leino · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 1:19PHIDarroll PoweSHGWGAssists: Blair Betts, Sean O'Donnell · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 12:07DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 10:37PHIJeff CarterAssists: Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:12DALKari Lehtonen: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:24PHIMatt Carle: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:40DALKarlis Skrastins: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:48PHINikolay Zherdev: Holding2 min
- P2 3:30PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:31DALMark Fistric: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Morrow – Ribeiro7:27
xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Ott – Morin – Sceviour2:24
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ott – Sutherby – Gagnon3:55
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Ott – Morin4:35
xG 0.02–0.09 (19%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann13:00
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Daley – Niskanen2:37
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Daley11:19
xG 0.31–0.39 (44%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestZherdev – Carter – Giroux8:57
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Richards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk8:56
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe7:08
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino12:41
xG 0.12–0.54 (19%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPronger – Carle13:13
xG 0.79–0.23 (78%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn13:34
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Meszaros11:33
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).