Sun, Feb 6, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 05 | 010 | 07 | 022 |
| WSH | 18 | 110 | 16 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:22WSHBrooks LaichGWGAssists: John Erskine, Mathieu Perreault · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 3:58WSHMarcus JohanssonSHAssists: Jeff Schultz · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 19:16WSHMike KnubleENAssists: Matt Hendricks · Wrist, 0.58 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P2 2:03WSHMatt Hendricks: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:15PITEric Tangradi: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:28PITMike Rupp: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:24PITMax Talbot: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:52PITTim Wallace: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:52WSHDavid Steckel: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:24WSHMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:18PITMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Jeffrey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Talbot – Conner10:05
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal9:19
xG 0.17–0.06 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Jeffrey9:52
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Adams – Wallace – Tangradi5:07
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Engelland3:01
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Letang2:58
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang10:49
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Perreault – Beagle7:02
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Bradley – Steckel – Gordon7:32
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:57
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Bradley – Laich – Gordon2:12
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Carlson5:17
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hannan – Erskine10:13
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Alzner – Carlson11:00
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).