Sun, Feb 6, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
St. Louis Blues 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 316 | 06 | 01 | 332 |
| TBL | 113 | 212 | 06 | 19 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:43TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Brett Clark, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 0:30STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Alexander Steen, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 2:33TBLDominic MooreAssists: Steven Stamkos, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 11:05STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Matt D'Agostini · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 13:09STLNikita NikitinAssists: Jay McClement · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 13:39TBLSteve DownieAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 4:53TBLVincent LecavalierPPGWGAssists: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Steven Stamkos · Backhand, 0.31 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:05TBLSimon Gagne: Holding2 min
- P1 7:18TBLAdam Hall: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:52STLB.J. Crombeen: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:16STLDavid Backes: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:10TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:24TBLMattias Ohlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:11STLAndy McDonald: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:39STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:40STLEric Brewer: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Oshie – Berglund6:14
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- McDonald – Boyes – Backes10:57
xG 0.36–0.32 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- McClement – Sobotka – D'Agostini8:53
xG 0.23–0.25 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- McDonald – Oshie – Berglund2:02
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Johnson3:15
xG 0.08–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Polak6:48
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Brewer – Johnson12:05
xG 0.77–0.75 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 1–3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Downie – Stamkos13:39
xG 1.03–0.25 (81%)attempts 16–8goals 2–1
- Lecavalier – Moore – Bergenheim2:00
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell9:05
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell9:45
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Smaby3:05
xG 0.38–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Clark – Kubina2:06
xG 0.39–0.05 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Jones2:17
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).