Mon, Feb 7, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 4, Nashville Predators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 16 | 111 | 25 | 422 |
| NSH | 016 | 06 | 015 | 037 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:27EDMAndrew CoglianoGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 14:23EDMRyan JonesAssists: Colin Fraser, Liam Reddox · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 4:35EDMJordan EberleAssists: Jim Vandermeer, Andrew Cogliano · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 6:58EDMDustin PennerAssists: Ales Hemsky · Backhand, 0.32 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:59EDMKurtis Foster: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:41NSHMarcel Goc: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:03EDMRyan Jones: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:38EDMJeff Petry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:54NSHPekka Rinne: Holding2 min
- P3 10:47EDMDustin Penner: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:26EDMJim Vandermeer: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Eberle – Hall9:13
xG 0.77–0.36 (68%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Fraser – Jones – Reddox6:11
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Penner13:23
xG 1.03–1.40 (43%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi11:34
xG 0.02–0.41 (4%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry12:16
xG 0.85–0.13 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Petry – Peckham2:32
xG 0.02–0.02 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Foster – Smid3:02
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestErat – Goc – Kostitsyn11:47
xG 0.93–0.49 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Sullivan – Dumont – Spaling4:33
xG 0.23–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Halischuk5:01
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Dumont – Halischuk – Spaling3:33
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber15:13
xG 1.15–0.24 (83%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Klein – O'Brien4:09
xG 0.40–0.09 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Sulzer – Franson3:10
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).