Mon, Feb 7, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 03 | 111 | 09 | 123 |
| CGY | 110 | 011 | 27 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:33CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Lance Bouma, Adam Pardy · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 5:56CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 8:37CGYCurtis GlencrossGWGAssists: Olli Jokinen, Robyn Regehr · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 19:35CGYRene BourqueENAssists: Olli Jokinen, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:27CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:05CGYCory Sarich: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:03CGYRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min
- P2 15:20CHIViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:31CGYCory Sarich: Clipping2 min
- P3 8:56CGYAlex Tanguay: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:00CHIPatrick Sharp: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:46CHIBrent Seabrook: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Toews – Kane11:58
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Hossa – Kopecky – Bolland2:03
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dowell – Skille – Stalberg5:06
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Pisani – Bolland – Bickell6:03
xG 0.04–0.07 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Leddy2:04
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Boynton – Leddy7:14
xG 0.25–0.16 (60%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook15:00
xG 0.34–0.27 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJackman – Stajan – Bourque7:14
xG 0.88–0.16 (84%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay3:29
xG 0.04–0.02 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Morrison – Iginla – Tanguay11:07
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross9:37
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Giordano3:53
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Sarich – Giordano11:06
xG 0.63–0.24 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Babchuk – Pardy7:00
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).