Mon, Feb 7, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 2, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 012 | 210 | 011 | 233 |
| VAN | 25 | 113 | 112 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:50VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Henrik Sedin, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 10:00VANRyan KeslerAssists: Mason Raymond, Mikael Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 2:12VANMikael SamuelssonGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P2 5:30OTTNick FolignoAssists: Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 7:17OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–3
- P3 19:28VANMikael SamuelssonENAssists: Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.51 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:18VANAaron Rome: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:40VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:33OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:33VANAaron Rome: Instigator2 min
- P1 16:33VANAaron Rome: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:33VANAaron Rome: Misconduct10 min
- P2 13:42VANRaffi Torres: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:39OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00VANAndrew Alberts: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:23OTTNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:04OTTMike Fisher: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Spezza – Foligno9:17
xG 0.83–0.37 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 2–2
- Shannon – Smith – Winchester2:36
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Fisher – Michalek2:00
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neil – Kelly2:43
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Karlsson12:18
xG 0.87–0.47 (65%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Kuba – Lee8:36
xG 0.50–0.19 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Phillips – Lee2:38
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows9:52
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen10:54
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Raymond8:58
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Tambellini – Glass – Hodgson4:44
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Alberts11:18
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa15:30
xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Rome4:02
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).