Tue, Feb 8, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 114 | 28 | 13 | 425 |
| PIT | 013 | 010 | 110 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07CBJRick NashAssists: Derick Brassard, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 8:08CBJSamuel PahlssonGWGAssists: R.J. Umberger, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 17:12CBJJakub VoracekAssists: Rick Nash, Derick Brassard · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 7:29PITTyler KennedyPPAssists: Mike Rupp, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 13:28CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Kristian Huselius, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:49CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:49PITBen Lovejoy: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:42PITMatt Cooke: Charging5 min
- P1 14:42PITMatt Cooke: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:42CBJDerick Brassard: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:42CBJDerick Brassard: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:30CBJChris Clark: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:44PITEric Godard: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:44CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:44PITEric Godard: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:50CBJDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHuselius – Vermette – Umberger12:32
xG 0.79–0.33 (71%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek13:46
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 10–17goals 2–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Calvert6:39
xG 0.16–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett10:39
xG 0.38–0.50 (43%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Stralman15:56
xG 1.07–0.40 (73%)attempts 15–12goals 3–0
- Tyutin – Methot14:06
xG 0.19–0.19 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Russell16:12
xG 0.60–0.70 (46%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Godard – Tangradi4:02
xG 0.36–0.04 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kennedy – Jeffrey9:12
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Cooke – Conner – Staal9:37
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Rupp – Talbot – Wallace9:13
xG 0.18–0.54 (25%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek11:58
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Orpik – Michalek4:37
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang9:02
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 8–5goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).