Fri, Feb 11, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 6, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 212 | 37 | 115 | 634 |
| BOS | 17 | 011 | 08 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Johan Franzen, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 3:10DETDaniel ClearyGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.29 xG2–0
- P1 17:53BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 1:09DETJiri HudlerAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brian Rafalski · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 16:14DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Daniel Cleary · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 16:38DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 13:51DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.53 xG6–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:29BOSAdam McQuaid: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:24DETBrian Rafalski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:02BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:55DETJakub Kindl: Holding2 min
- P2 15:22BOSMark Recchi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:23BOSNathan Horton: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:18BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:09BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:03DETJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:43BOSMilan Lucic: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Cleary
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Hudler11:21
xG 0.91–0.31 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Draper – Eaves – Helm8:20
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Zetterberg – Franzen10:12
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader8:37
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Ericsson13:08
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Salei – Kindl13:40
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Salei – Ericsson2:14
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Ryder – Wheeler – Hamill7:49
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Caron8:09
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand12:06
xG 0.52–0.65 (44%)attempts 13–8goals 0–3
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic10:46
xG 0.18–0.46 (29%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Kampfer12:31
xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – Boychuk5:44
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Ference – McQuaid3:36
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).