Fri, Feb 11, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Colorado Avalanche 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 013 | 07 | 132 |
| CBJ | 06 | 214 | 112 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:54COLPhilippe DupuisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 7:19CBJRick NashAssists: Jakub Voracek, Fedor Tyutin · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 14:02CBJDerick BrassardGWGAssists: Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 19:56CBJDerek MacKenzieENAssists: Samuel Pahlsson · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:23CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:23COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:12CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:12COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:50CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:50COLDaniel Winnik: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:39CBJR.J. Umberger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:20COLBrandon Yip: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:18COLPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestForsberg – Hejduk – Duchene14:12
xG 0.82–0.31 (73%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Porter – Yip – Winnik4:59
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Stewart10:51
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Koci – Dupuis – McLeod2:03
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWilson – Shattenkirk12:17
xG 1.01–0.32 (76%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Liles – O'Byrne11:58
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Holos10:53
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek11:39
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Calvert3:41
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – MacKenzie4:53
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett9:21
xG 0.08–0.49 (14%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Stralman17:42
xG 0.67–0.54 (55%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Methot15:00
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Clitsome – Russell12:44
xG 0.44–0.87 (34%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).