Fri, Feb 11, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 5, Calgary Flames 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 15 | 214 | 17 | 14 | 530 |
| CGY | 09 | 27 | 28 | 01 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:04ANASaku KoivuAssists: Jason Blake, Teemu Selanne · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 3:16CGYRene BourqueAssists: Robyn Regehr, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 3:57CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Curtis Glencross, David Moss · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 7:34ANASaku KoivuAssists: Teemu Selanne, Jason Blake · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 10:12ANABrandon McMillanSHAssists: Corey Perry, Andy Sutton · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 5:33CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Robyn Regehr, Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 8:18CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: David Moss, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 17:53ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.36 xG4–4
- OT 4:41ANACam FowlerGWGAssists: Saku Koivu, Teemu Selanne · Backhand, 0.06 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:52ANAGeorge Parros: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:20ANALuca Sbisa: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 8:49ANAGeorge Parros: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:40ANAAndy Sutton: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:42CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Blake14:20
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 23–15goals 2–0
- Marchant – Parros – Ryan3:05
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Lapierre – McMillan – Sexton9:54
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan17:09
xG 0.29–0.49 (37%)attempts 7–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSutton – Sbisa6:45
xG 0.45–0.06 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky17:55
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 15–21goals 0–1
- Sutton – Beauchemin3:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan2:45
xG 0.19–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross12:30
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Hagman – Jackman – Stajan7:59
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Morrison – Iginla – Bourque13:06
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Bouwmeester19:09
xG 0.70–0.57 (55%)attempts 21–13goals 2–1
- Bouwmeester – Giordano3:28
xG 0.10–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Staios – Babchuk10:51
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).