Sat, Feb 12, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 07 | 09 | 027 |
| MTL | 015 | 212 | 112 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:12MTLBenoit PouliotGWGAssists: David Desharnais, Roman Hamrlik · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 11:52MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 6:19MTLDavid DesharnaisPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Roman Hamrlik · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:53TORBrett Lebda: Interference2 min
- P1 12:44MTLRyan White: Holding2 min
- P1 19:53MTLP.K. Subban: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:53TORJoffrey Lupul: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:00MTLRoman Hamrlik: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:37MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:27MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:15TORDion Phaneuf: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:02TORDarryl Boyce: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:52MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:07TORDarryl Boyce: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:29TORJoey Crabb: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:36TORDarryl Boyce: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Boyce
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Kessel – Kulemin6:14
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Sjostrom – Boyce – Versteeg3:51
xG 0.01–0.03 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin2:57
xG 0.06–0.08 (44%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Crabb – Brent – Rosehill3:55
xG 0.02–0.10 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Komisarek – Lebda5:54
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Aulie – Schenn2:43
xG 0.02–0.04 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Komisarek2:18
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Pacioretty7:04
xG 0.88–0.02 (98%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – White7:37
xG 0.48–0.01 (97%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Kostitsyn – Pacioretty2:29
xG 0.02–0.04 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Halpern – Pyatt – Eller3:47
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski10:52
xG 0.82–0.07 (92%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Picard2:07
xG 0.31–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Picard – Weber7:09
xG 0.14–0.05 (72%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).