Sat, Feb 12, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 15 | 217 | 00 | 334 |
| TBL | 015 | 218 | 16 | 12 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:26TBLSteve DownieAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 7:41TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Simon Gagne · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 9:08CAREric StaalPPAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Erik Cole · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 12:48TBLSean BergenheimAssists: Dana Tyrell · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 19:08CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 19:27CARErik ColeAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Joe Corvo · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 1:32TBLMarc-Andre BergeronGWGAssists: Sean Bergenheim · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:03TBLSteve Downie: Boarding2 min
- P1 3:50CARSergei Samsonov: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:32TBLSteve Downie: Charging2 min
- P1 5:50CARJeff Skinner: Charging2 min
- P1 6:45TBLPavel Kubina: Holding2 min
- P1 9:42CARIan White: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:55TBLDominic Moore: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:55CARTuomo Ruutu: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:29CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:40TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:04CARJoni Pitkanen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:50TBLMatt Smaby: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:21CARChad LaRose: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:54TBLPavel Kubina: Interference2 min
- P3 8:15TBLMatt Smaby: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCole – LaRose – Staal4:49
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Cole – Staal2:34
xG 0.02–0.01 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Dwyer – Sutter2:06
xG 0.03–0.06 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Staal – Boychuk2:49
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Harrison2:40
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – White8:24
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Gleason – McBain7:48
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Downie – Stamkos7:59
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell8:49
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hall – Moore – Tyrell5:05
xG 0.27–0.15 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Hall – Moore – Bergenheim4:45
xG 0.05–0.22 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Hedman10:49
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Kubina – Smaby2:47
xG 0.15–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Smaby – Jones2:30
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).