Tue, Feb 15, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Boston Bruins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 17 | 29 | 428 |
| BOS | 114 | 111 | 110 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:04BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Mark Stuart, Gregory Campbell · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 17:22TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Joffrey Lupul · Snap, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 4:35TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Mike Komisarek, Carl Gunnarsson · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 18:34BOSGregory CampbellPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Michael Ryder · Tip-in, 0.41 xG2–2
- P3 9:08BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Adam McQuaid, Mark Recchi · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 13:27TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–3
- P3 18:59TORMikhail GrabovskiGWGAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:18BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:17BOSZdeno Chara: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:37TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:26TORKeith Aulie: Interference2 min
- P2 16:44TORMikhail Grabovski: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:09BOSDennis Seidenberg: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:14TORKeith Aulie: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestCrabb – Brent – Rosehill4:49
xG 0.09–0.02 (80%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:10
xG 0.59–0.54 (52%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Sjostrom – Boyce – Hanson9:22
xG 0.03–0.20 (13%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak12:11
xG 0.29–1.05 (22%)attempts 8–20goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestAulie – Schenn3:20
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson8:12
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Schenn16:15
xG 0.24–0.70 (25%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic10:22
xG 0.85–0.14 (86%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Wheeler – Seguin2:08
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand9:41
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Ryder – Wheeler – Seguin8:53
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Seidenberg12:34
xG 0.88–0.26 (77%)attempts 20–7goals 0–1
- Chara – McQuaid3:10
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Chara – Kampfer13:57
xG 0.76–0.51 (60%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).